The numbers haven't been great for the Caps over the last few games

A MoneyPuck season-to-date chart shows Washington's 5-on-5 xGoals differential rising early, then sliding since late November. It's the kind of trend line that makes you pause.

The Caps keep stacking points, but Saturday's 5-1 loss in Winnipeg snapped a nine-game point streak and looked like a team chasing.

When 5-on-5 xGoals differential drops, you're either creating less from the middle or leaking more slot looks. Washington has had too many shifts lately where both things happen.

Caps fans can feel the ice tilting lately, even in wins. The rush is getting shoved wide, and the F3 isn't arriving in time to clean up rebounds.

Washington is 18-10-4, and Logan Thompson sits at a .925 save percentage. That's covering for some messy exits that are handing opponents easy re-entries.

Tom Wilson leads with 17 goals and 32 points, and Jakob Chychrun has 11 goals from the blue line. The finish hasn't vanished, the chance volume has cooled.

Ryan Leonard hitting injured reserve with a shoulder issue matters more than his minutes suggest. He was a straight-line forechecker, and that first touch on retrievals sets the whole shift.

Special teams are the other headache, because a 16.0 percent power play and 75.5 percent penalty kill can turn a small 5-on-5 dip into a real problem.

The next checkpoint is Tuesday at the Minnesota Wild, then Thursday versus the Toronto Maple Leafs. If Spencer Carbery's group drives the middle and exits clean, the numbers should settle down.

Bottom line, I'm not hitting the panic button yet, but I'm watching the trend closely. A 5-on-5 xGoals dip usually shows up when exits get sloppy and chances drift to the outside. The next couple games should tell us quickly if the Capitals clean it up, or if this slide has real legs.