Quarter-Season Report: Why the Capitals Are So Hard to Read

At the American Thanksgiving checkpoint the Caps sit 13-9-2, third in the Metropolitan and very much in the mix again after last year's stumble.

They are scoring 3.33 goals per night and allowing 2.67, both top-ten numbers that feel wild if you remember the 7-1 faceplant in Ottawa a month ago.

The catch is everything that happens when someone raises an arm. The power play is stuck around 15 percent, 26th in the league, and the penalty kill is worse at roughly 72 percent, 29th overall.

Spencer Carbery finally blew up his units after that 0-for-6 debacle against Tampa, calling out predictability and puck movement that dies on the half wall.

At five-on-five, though, this looks like a legit contender. Washington is top ten in both goals for and against per game, and the shot share numbers back up what you see, wave after wave of pressure driven by a blue line that already has four-goal nights on its résumé.

With Dubois out long term, Justin Sourdif has rocketed from projected depth piece to second-line driver next to Aliaksei Protas and Wilson, and that trio has crushed expected goals in tough minutes.

In net, Logan Thompson still sits with a sparkling 2.24 goals-against and .912 save percentage, firmly in «Team Canada will at least talk about him» territory.

Charlie Lindgren quietly owns big nights of his own, including steady work in the wins over Montreal, Columbus, and Winnipeg.
Up front Tom Wilson leads with 24 points, while Carlson, Chychrun, and Ovechkin are right behind at 22.

So where does that leave them. If the Caps drag the power play and penalty kill even to league average while surviving injuries to Dubois and Nic Dowd, this shapes up as a real Metro race, not a wild-card scramble, and hitting New Year still in that top three would feel like a win for everyone in red.